SoftBank Group’s stock plunged on November 25, 2025, wiping nearly $5 billion from founder and CEO Masayoshi Son’s fortune. The decline came amid enthusiasm for Google’s new “Gemini 3” AI model and growing concerns about the competitiveness of OpenAI, where SoftBank has made massive investments.
The Full Picture of the Stock Decline
SoftBank shares fell as much as 11% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on November 25, closing down 9.95% at 15,390 yen. This pushed Masayoshi Son down to 32nd position on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list.
More significantly, SoftBank shares have plunged around 40% since their late October peak, erasing over ¥16 trillion (approximately $102 billion) in market value.
Concerns Sparked by Gemini 3
Google’s “Gemini 3,” announced on November 18, has received high market acclaim. Gemini 3 Pro achieved 1501 Elo on the LMArena benchmark, becoming the first model ever to surpass the 1500-point threshold.
Investors are now questioning OpenAI’s dominance in the AI market, which is fueling anxiety about SoftBank’s massive OpenAI investments.
SoftBank’s OpenAI Investment Strategy
SoftBank has been aggressively selling assets to fund its OpenAI investments:
- Complete Nvidia stake sale: $5.8 billion worth (32.1 million shares) sold in October
- T-Mobile US stake sale: Sold to fund OpenAI investment
- Total investment commitment: $32 billion to OpenAI
- December payment: $22.5 billion additional investment planned through Vision Fund 2
SoftBank CFO Yoshimitsu Goto stated: “This year our investment in OpenAI is large, more than $30 billion needs to be made. For that, we do need to divest our existing assets.”
Funding Challenges
David Gibson at MST Financial told the Financial Times that SoftBank has committed approximately $113 billion in investments but possesses funding capacity of only $58.5 billion.
To bridge this funding gap, SoftBank has:
- Raised a $5 billion margin loan backed by Arm shares
- Secured $8.5 billion in bridging loans for OpenAI
Warning from “The Big Short” Investor
Investor Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, last week accused OpenAI of being the “linchpin” in a web of circular financing across the AI ecosystem.
Bloomberg’s columns have also noted concerns about similarities between Son’s investment patterns and the revenue structure mismatches seen in WeWork and OpenAI.
OpenAI’s Current State and Challenges
OpenAI has committed to more than $1 trillion in spending over the next five years, but many analysts argue this target is unrealistic. According to Reuters, OpenAI’s losses continue to expand and the company has yet to achieve profitability.
Furthermore, recent comments from OpenAI executives suggesting the need for government support have added to questions around funding.
The Future of the Stargate Project
The “Stargate” project announced by the Trump administration—a $100 billion AI infrastructure investment by SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle—has reportedly hit snags due to tariff concerns and funding issues.
Son serves as Stargate’s chairman, with SoftBank Group handling fundraising and OpenAI managing operations.
Outlook
SoftBank plans to continue its OpenAI investments, but several risk factors remain:
- Intensifying competition: Google, Anthropic, Meta and other competitors catching up
- Funding: Gap between investment commitments and actual funding capacity
- Monetization uncertainty: Unclear timeline for OpenAI profitability
- Market sentiment: Growing investor caution toward AI stocks overall
While enthusiasm for AI industry investments continues, this stock plunge may be a sign that markets are beginning to reassess the risks of an AI bubble.