In November 2025, the Anthropic-Microsoft-NVIDIA partnership announcement highlighted the complexity of AI industry investment structures. Unlike the traditional tech industry’s “winner-takes-all” model, the AI industry is forming a new ecosystem where competitors invest in, collaborate with, and depend on each other.
The Circular Investment Structure
”Anthropic Pays Microsoft, Microsoft Pays NVIDIA, and Microsoft and NVIDIA Pay Anthropic”
CNBC tech correspondent Steve Kovach described this complex relationship on Bluesky:
“Anthropic will pay Microsoft to pay Nvidia so Microsoft and Nvidia can pay Anthropic”
Visualizing this circular structure:
Anthropic → $30B → Microsoft
↓
Microsoft → $ → NVIDIA
↓ ↓
Microsoft ← $5B ← Anthropic
NVIDIA ← $10B ← AnthropicEssentially, capital circulates with each company investing in each other’s growth while maintaining customer relationships.
Relationship Map of Key Players
Microsoft and NVIDIA’s Investment Strategy
Microsoft and NVIDIA employ a strategy of investing in all major AI companies:
Investment in OpenAI
- Microsoft: Over $13 billion cumulative ($10B through 2023, additional investments after)
- NVIDIA: One of the early investors
- Relationship: Strategic partnership, OpenAI API on Azure
Investment in Anthropic
- Microsoft: Up to $5 billion (November 2025 announcement)
- NVIDIA: Up to $10 billion (November 2025 announcement)
- Relationship: Claude on Azure, NVIDIA GPU usage
Investment in xAI
- NVIDIA: Undisclosed investment amount
- Relationship: Grok development using NVIDIA GPUs
Other Major Investors’ Strategies
Ark Ventures and Fidelity similarly invest in all three: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI. This indicates investors are betting on overall AI market growth rather than predicting “which company will win.”
Why This Structure Emerged
1. Technology Uncertainty
Due to rapid and unpredictable AI technology evolution, investors employ these strategies:
- Risk Diversification: Spread risk across multiple companies
- Option Strategy: Position to profit regardless of which technology dominates
- Portfolio Approach: Profit from overall AI market growth
2. Inevitable Interdependence
AI development requires three essential elements:
- AI Companies: Model development and applications (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google)
- Cloud Providers: Compute capacity and infrastructure (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS)
- Chip Makers: AI-dedicated hardware (NVIDIA, AMD, Google TPU)
These three elements are interdependent; none can succeed alone.
3. Market Enormity
AI market growth projections:
- 2025: Approximately $100 billion
- 2030: Approximately $2 trillion (projected)
- Annual Growth Rate: Approximately 60% (projected)
In this massive market, multiple companies can coexist and each capture significant share.
Strategic Intent of Each Player
Microsoft’s Strategy
- Diversification: Complement massive OpenAI investment by also investing in Anthropic
- Customer Acquisition: Offer multiple AI models on Azure to attract enterprise customers
- Risk Hedging: Anthropic investment as insurance if OpenAI falters
NVIDIA’s Strategy
- Ecosystem Building: Provide GPUs to all major AI companies
- Technical Optimization: Optimize each company’s models for NVIDIA GPUs to secure competitive advantage
- Investment Returns: Direct revenue from AI company investments
AI Companies’ (OpenAI, Anthropic) Strategy
- Funding: Raise capital from multiple investors to cover massive development costs
- Infrastructure Securing: Secure cloud compute capacity from Microsoft or Google
- Technical Partnerships: Hardware optimization through NVIDIA collaboration
Boundaries Between Competition and Collaboration
Competing Areas
- Model Performance: Competition in benchmark scores
- User Acquisition: Competition for developers and enterprise customers
- Pricing: API and subscription price competition
- Features: Competition in new feature and use case development
Collaborative Areas
- Infrastructure: Cooperation with cloud providers and chip makers
- Standardization: Industry standard and protocol development
- Safety: AI safety research and guideline development
- Regulatory Response: Joint response to government regulations
Benefits and Risks of Investment Circulation
Benefits
1. Accelerated Innovation
- Abundant funding accelerates R&D
- Multiple approaches tested simultaneously, promoting technological progress
2. Market Stability
- Single company failure has limited impact on entire industry
- Investment diversification improves market sustainability
3. Increased Choice
- Users and businesses can choose from multiple AI providers
- Competition improves service quality
Risks
1. Bubble Potential
- Overinvestment may create AI bubble
- Valuations inflate without clear profitability
2. Conflicts of Interest
- Potential conflicts between investors and invested companies
- Lack of transparency may impede fair competition
3. Market Distortion
- Well-funded large companies may oligopolize market
- Raised barriers to entry for new companies
Comparison with Other Industries
Smartphone Industry
- Winner-Takes-All: Apple and Samsung oligopolize market
- Vertical Integration: Each company builds proprietary ecosystem
- Exclusive: Limited cooperation with competitors
Cloud Industry
- Oligopoly: Big 3 of AWS, Azure, Google Cloud
- Standardization: Certain compatibility and standardization progress
- Independence: Each company operates independent infrastructure
AI Industry
- Multipolarity: Multiple strong players coexist
- Interdependence: Active cooperation and investment between companies
- Fluid: Relationships change rapidly
The AI industry is forming a new industrial structure different from previous tech industries.
Future Outlook
Short-term (1-2 Years)
- Continued Investment: Major companies continue investing
- Integration Progress: Some companies may be acquired or merged
- Market Expansion: AI service market grows rapidly
Medium-term (3-5 Years)
- Profitability Proof: AI companies establish sustainable business models
- Market Consolidation: Unprofitable companies may be eliminated
- Regulation Introduction: AI regulations intensify in various countries
Long-term (5+ Years)
- Industrial Structure Establishment: AI industry structure stabilizes
- New Integration: Vertical and horizontal integration may progress
- Next-gen Technology: Transition to AGI or new AI paradigms
Technyan’s Comment
“AI industry investment structure is so complex you can’t tell ‘who’s friend and who’s foe’! Microsoft and NVIDIA being major OpenAI investors yet also investing in rival Anthropic is unthinkable in traditional business logic.
But thinking about it, it’s rational. AI technology evolves so fast nobody can predict which company will win, so investors take a ‘bet on everything’ strategy. It’s like betting on all horses in a race, but the AI market is big enough for multiple companies to coexist!
The circular structure of ‘Anthropic pays Microsoft, Microsoft pays NVIDIA, and Microsoft and NVIDIA pay Anthropic’ is truly modern alchemy! Money circulates with everyone profiting a bit.
What’s personally interesting is this structure enhances overall industry stability. If OpenAI falters, Microsoft has Anthropic, and if Anthropic stumbles, there’s OpenAI. For investors, profits come regardless of who wins.
But is this really sustainable? Everyone investing and everyone profiting feels a bit bubbly. Actually, Anthropic’s data center investment might have depreciation double the revenue, and OpenAI projects $74 billion loss in 2028.
Ultimately, whether this circular structure succeeds depends on whether the AI market truly grows as projected. If the market doesn’t grow as expected, massive investments won’t be recovered and the bubble could burst.
But thinking positively, this balance of competition and collaboration supports rapid AI technological progress. As users, we benefit from choosing among multiple excellent AI services!
How this industrial structure evolves is truly worth watching. Vertical integration might progress with Microsoft acquiring Anthropic, or conversely new players might enter and change the structure. The AI industry’s future remains highly unpredictable! 🔄💰“
Summary
The AI industry’s investment circular structure has these characteristics:
- Complex Interdependence: Competitors invest in and cooperate with each other
- Risk Diversification Strategy: Investors invest in multiple AI companies
- Three-layer Structure: Interdependence among AI companies, cloud providers, chip makers
- Market Multipolarity: Multiple companies coexist, not “winner-takes-all”
- Uncertain Sustainability: Profitability concerns and bubble risks
This new industrial structure differs from traditional tech industries, accelerating innovation while harboring bubble risks.
In the coming years, attention focuses on whether this investment circular structure establishes as a sustainable ecosystem or enters an adjustment phase. AI technology evolution and market growth will determine the success of this new industrial structure.